Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Alamo Group Inc. (ALG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$263.04 - $876.32$429.11
Multi-Stage$167.75 - $183.48$175.47
Blended Fair Value$302.29
Current Price$190.90
Upside58.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.20%14.10%1.030.870.710.550.510.470.420.380.340.30
YoY Growth--18.66%22.65%29.00%8.21%8.85%9.80%11.05%12.15%13.40%9.01%
Dividend Yield--0.58%0.41%0.38%0.38%0.33%0.53%0.43%0.35%0.45%0.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)116.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.2714.558.73
Cash Retained (M)102.45102.45102.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.27-14.55-8.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.1887.9193.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.0712.0712.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.567.287.77
LTM Dividend per Share1.151.151.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.567.287.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.718.448.92
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$263.04$429.11$876.32
Upside / Downside37.79%124.78%359.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)116.37123.93131.99140.57149.71159.44164.22
Payout Ratio11.96%27.57%43.18%58.78%74.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.9234.1756.9982.63111.37143.49151.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31.1731.4631.76
Year 2 PV (M)47.4248.3249.24
Year 3 PV (M)62.7264.5366.36
Year 4 PV (M)77.1280.0883.13
Year 5 PV (M)90.6495.0299.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,715.151,798.001,884.01
Equity Value (M)2,024.222,117.412,214.06
Shares Outstanding (M)12.0712.0712.07
Fair Value$167.75$175.47$183.48
Upside / Downside-12.13%-8.08%-3.89%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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