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Definitive Analysis

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Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. (ALEX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.97 - $33.76$23.54
Multi-Stage$17.91 - $19.57$18.73
Blended Fair Value$21.13
Current Price$18.19
Upside16.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.38%22.85%0.890.880.790.640.190.692.150.140.170.14
YoY Growth--1.06%11.44%23.82%237.68%-72.40%-68.07%1,420.39%-16.26%19.42%24.10%
Dividend Yield--5.18%5.45%4.19%2.76%1.13%6.12%8.45%0.61%0.57%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.679.175.50
Cash Retained (M)24.2424.2424.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.67-9.17-5.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.5715.0718.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.8772.8772.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.210.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.210.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate3.38%4.38%5.38%
Fair Value$16.97$23.54$33.76
Upside / Downside-6.72%29.39%85.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73.3476.5579.9183.4187.0690.8893.60
Payout Ratio66.95%71.56%76.17%80.78%85.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.1054.7860.8667.3874.3481.7986.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate3.38%4.38%5.38%
Year 1 PV (M)50.1050.5951.07
Year 2 PV (M)50.9251.9152.90
Year 3 PV (M)51.5553.0654.60
Year 4 PV (M)52.0354.0756.17
Year 5 PV (M)52.3554.9357.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,048.311,100.001,153.71
Equity Value (M)1,305.261,364.561,426.08
Shares Outstanding (M)72.8772.8772.87
Fair Value$17.91$18.73$19.57
Upside / Downside-1.53%2.94%7.58%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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