Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$108.89 - $567.17$219.59
Multi-Stage$68.59 - $75.09$71.78
Blended Fair Value$145.69
Current Price$12.20
Upside1,094.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.60%0.00%0.760.000.000.000.000.480.440.320.560.56
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%9.10%37.48%-42.82%0.01%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%12.68%5.89%3.94%8.28%7.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)256.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)184.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.3332.0819.25
Cash Retained (M)184.09184.09184.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.33-32.08-19.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)132.76152.01164.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)89.4989.4989.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.481.701.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.481.701.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.292.512.65
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate4.90%5.90%6.90%
Fair Value$108.89$219.59$567.17
Upside / Downside792.56%1,699.93%4,548.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)256.63271.78287.82304.81322.80341.85352.10
Payout Ratio28.27%40.61%52.96%65.31%77.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.54110.38152.43199.06250.66307.66325.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate4.90%5.90%6.90%
Year 1 PV (M)102.08103.05104.02
Year 2 PV (M)130.36132.86135.38
Year 3 PV (M)157.43161.98166.61
Year 4 PV (M)183.34190.43197.72
Year 5 PV (M)208.10218.21228.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,356.935,617.175,887.43
Equity Value (M)6,138.246,423.706,719.88
Shares Outstanding (M)89.4989.4989.49
Fair Value$68.59$71.78$75.09
Upside / Downside462.25%488.40%515.52%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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