Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Adairs Limited (ADH.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.07 - $63.37$44.07
Multi-Stage$7.83 - $8.56$8.19
Blended Fair Value$26.13
Current Price$2.09
Upside1,150.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.28%0.00%0.110.040.150.160.230.070.130.090.090.05
YoY Growth--159.79%-72.26%-6.72%-27.61%205.79%-44.83%45.01%-0.01%100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.30%2.25%9.73%8.63%5.36%3.24%9.31%4.17%10.83%1.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)29.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.357.104.26
Cash Retained (M)29.4229.4229.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.35-7.10-4.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.0722.3225.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)178.17178.17178.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.280.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.07$44.07$63.37
Upside / Downside668.81%2,008.79%2,932.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.7760.4664.3968.5873.0477.7880.12
Payout Ratio48.18%56.54%64.91%73.27%81.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.3534.1941.7950.2559.6270.0074.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31.6031.9032.20
Year 2 PV (M)35.7136.3937.07
Year 3 PV (M)39.6840.8241.98
Year 4 PV (M)43.5245.1946.91
Year 5 PV (M)47.2349.5151.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,197.871,255.731,315.80
Equity Value (M)1,395.601,459.531,525.84
Shares Outstanding (M)178.17178.17178.17
Fair Value$7.83$8.19$8.56
Upside / Downside274.79%291.96%309.77%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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