Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$775.23 - $2,142.68$2,008.00
Multi-Stage$302.04 - $330.44$315.98
Blended Fair Value$1,161.99
Current Price$90.73
Upside1,180.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%4.910.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,096.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,878.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,218.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)819.20512.00307.20
Cash Retained (M)2,218.002,218.002,218.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-819.20-512.00-307.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,398.801,706.001,910.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)380.18380.18380.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.684.495.03
LTM Dividend per Share4.944.944.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.684.495.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.629.439.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$775.23$2,008.00$2,142.68
Upside / Downside754.44%2,113.16%2,261.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,096.004,362.244,645.794,947.765,269.375,611.875,780.23
Payout Ratio45.85%54.68%63.51%72.34%81.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,878.002,385.262,950.533,579.204,277.145,050.695,346.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,215.052,236.052,257.04
Year 2 PV (M)2,544.472,592.932,641.85
Year 3 PV (M)2,866.372,948.653,032.49
Year 4 PV (M)3,180.883,303.213,429.03
Year 5 PV (M)3,488.133,656.613,831.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)100,533.81105,389.63110,431.29
Equity Value (M)114,828.70120,127.07125,623.25
Shares Outstanding (M)380.18380.18380.18
Fair Value$302.04$315.98$330.44
Upside / Downside232.90%248.26%264.20%

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