Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ambev S.A. (ABEV3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$114.27 - $202.88$190.12
Multi-Stage$33.35 - $36.45$34.87
Blended Fair Value$112.50
Current Price$12.09
Upside830.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.42%-10.32%0.260.760.780.710.440.500.560.560.660.73
YoY Growth---65.98%-2.62%10.14%62.26%-12.97%-10.70%-0.06%-14.62%-10.09%-4.72%
Dividend Yield--1.91%6.47%5.66%4.71%2.90%4.23%3.34%2.31%3.59%3.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,037.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,642.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,394.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,207.412,004.631,202.78
Cash Retained (M)1,394.431,394.431,394.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,207.41-2,004.63-1,202.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,812.99-610.20191.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,720.8315,720.8315,720.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.040.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.040.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$114.27$190.12$202.88
Upside / Downside845.16%1,472.57%1,578.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,037.0717,079.4818,189.6519,371.9720,631.1521,972.1822,631.34
Payout Ratio91.30%91.04%90.78%90.52%90.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,642.6415,549.8416,513.1017,535.8918,621.8819,774.9620,933.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14,497.2514,634.6614,772.08
Year 2 PV (M)14,353.1814,626.5714,902.54
Year 3 PV (M)14,210.4314,618.3615,034.02
Year 4 PV (M)14,068.9814,610.0315,166.55
Year 5 PV (M)13,928.8214,601.5915,300.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)453,216.36475,106.88497,835.20
Equity Value (M)524,275.03548,198.10573,010.50
Shares Outstanding (M)15,720.8315,720.8315,720.83
Fair Value$33.35$34.87$36.45
Upside / Downside175.84%188.43%201.48%

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