Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

National Petroleum Co., Ltd. (9937.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.10 - $44.85$34.96
Multi-Stage$63.61 - $69.90$66.69
Blended Fair Value$50.83
Current Price$61.80
Upside-17.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.98%5.76%2.102.102.102.312.002.002.002.001.401.20
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-8.70%15.00%0.00%-0.02%0.02%42.86%16.67%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.42%3.18%3.41%4.68%3.97%4.80%4.84%4.93%3.52%3.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)734.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)648.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)146.9791.8555.11
Cash Retained (M)85.8585.8585.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-146.97-91.85-55.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)-61.12-6.0130.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)308.35308.35308.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.020.10
LTM Dividend per Share2.102.102.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.020.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.912.092.20
WACC / Discount Rate5.94%5.94%5.94%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Fair Value$27.10$34.96$44.85
Upside / Downside-56.15%-43.43%-27.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)734.84734.69734.55734.41734.26734.12756.14
Payout Ratio88.32%88.65%88.99%89.33%89.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)648.99651.34653.68656.02658.37660.71699.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.94%5.94%5.94%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Year 1 PV (M)608.64614.79620.94
Year 2 PV (M)570.79582.39594.09
Year 3 PV (M)535.29551.68568.40
Year 4 PV (M)501.99522.59543.81
Year 5 PV (M)470.75495.02520.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,925.9017,798.3718,706.44
Equity Value (M)19,613.3720,564.8321,553.96
Shares Outstanding (M)308.35308.35308.35
Fair Value$63.61$66.69$69.90
Upside / Downside2.92%7.92%13.11%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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