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Definitive Analysis

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Activation Group Holdings Limited (9919.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.50 - $14.29$8.36
Multi-Stage$6.02 - $6.60$6.31
Blended Fair Value$7.33
Current Price$0.76
Upside868.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.94%0.00%0.110.110.120.070.000.050.070.000.010.00
YoY Growth--4.04%-9.98%82.01%0.00%-100.00%-24.94%20,865.89%-96.40%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--14.04%11.37%14.30%5.70%0.00%3.91%5.29%0.03%0.69%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)181.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)96.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.2422.6513.59
Cash Retained (M)96.1496.1496.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.24-22.65-13.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)59.9073.4982.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)741.51741.51741.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate3.08%4.08%5.08%
Fair Value$5.50$8.36$14.29
Upside / Downside626.72%1,004.05%1,787.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)181.18188.57196.26204.26212.59221.26227.90
Payout Ratio46.94%55.55%64.16%72.78%81.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85.04104.75125.93148.65173.02199.14210.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate3.08%4.08%5.08%
Year 1 PV (M)97.1998.1499.08
Year 2 PV (M)108.41110.52112.66
Year 3 PV (M)118.74122.23125.79
Year 4 PV (M)128.24133.29138.49
Year 5 PV (M)136.95143.72150.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,876.344,068.054,267.28
Equity Value (M)4,465.884,675.964,894.05
Shares Outstanding (M)741.51741.51741.51
Fair Value$6.02$6.31$6.60
Upside / Downside695.46%732.88%771.73%

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