Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Balsm Alofoq Medical Co. (9620.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Equipment & ServicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.40 - $53.59$43.96
Multi-Stage$74.10 - $81.42$77.69
Blended Fair Value$60.83
Current Price$77.00
Upside-21.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022
DPS0.00%0.00%2.620.840.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--212.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.20%1.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.940.590.35
Cash Retained (M)1.691.691.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.94-0.59-0.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.751.101.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.151.151.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.961.17
LTM Dividend per Share2.622.622.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.961.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.273.583.79
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$35.40$43.96$53.59
Upside / Downside-54.03%-42.90%-30.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.694.644.604.554.504.464.59
Payout Ratio63.98%69.18%74.39%79.59%84.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.003.213.423.623.824.014.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.973.003.03
Year 2 PV (M)2.922.983.04
Year 3 PV (M)2.862.953.04
Year 4 PV (M)2.792.913.03
Year 5 PV (M)2.712.853.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)70.6574.3378.16
Equity Value (M)84.9189.0293.30
Shares Outstanding (M)1.151.151.15
Fair Value$74.10$77.69$81.42
Upside / Downside-3.77%0.90%5.75%

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