Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

First Avenue for Real Estate De (9610.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.25 - $7.80$6.47
Multi-Stage$9.60 - $10.57$10.08
Blended Fair Value$8.27
Current Price$9.50
Upside-12.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.110.060.000.290.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--99.99%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.22%0.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)120.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)100.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.1015.069.04
Cash Retained (M)100.16100.16100.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.10-15.06-9.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)76.0685.1091.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)184.57184.57184.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.25$6.47$7.80
Upside / Downside-44.69%-31.90%-17.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)120.51119.31118.11116.93115.76114.61118.04
Payout Ratio16.89%31.51%46.13%60.75%75.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.3537.5954.4971.0487.26103.15109.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)34.5434.8935.24
Year 2 PV (M)45.9946.9447.89
Year 3 PV (M)55.1056.8058.54
Year 4 PV (M)62.1864.7567.41
Year 5 PV (M)67.5271.0474.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,507.021,585.491,667.20
Equity Value (M)1,772.351,859.911,950.98
Shares Outstanding (M)184.57184.57184.57
Fair Value$9.60$10.08$10.57
Upside / Downside1.08%6.08%11.27%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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