Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Atlas Elevators General Trading and Contracting Co. (9578.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.22 - $40.46$32.84
Multi-Stage$59.35 - $65.30$62.27
Blended Fair Value$47.55
Current Price$18.23
Upside160.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.520.930.410.520.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---44.44%125.00%-20.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.51%4.63%1.89%2.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.312.071.24
Cash Retained (M)7.617.617.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.31-2.07-1.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.315.556.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.825.825.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.951.10
LTM Dividend per Share1.531.531.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.951.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.272.492.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$26.22$32.84$40.46
Upside / Downside43.85%80.13%121.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16.5416.3716.2116.0515.8915.7316.20
Payout Ratio53.96%61.17%68.38%75.58%82.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.9210.0211.0812.1313.1514.1614.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)9.319.409.50
Year 2 PV (M)9.589.779.97
Year 3 PV (M)9.7410.0410.35
Year 4 PV (M)9.8210.2210.64
Year 5 PV (M)9.8210.3310.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)296.95312.41328.51
Equity Value (M)345.21362.19379.84
Shares Outstanding (M)5.825.825.82
Fair Value$59.35$62.27$65.30
Upside / Downside225.55%241.56%258.21%

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