Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Abdulaziz and Mansour Ibrahim Albabtin Co. (9549.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.43 - $18.08$15.17
Multi-Stage$21.13 - $23.22$22.16
Blended Fair Value$18.66
Current Price$35.50
Upside-47.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.500.500.991.070.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-50.00%-6.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.13%1.13%2.12%1.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.140.720.43
Cash Retained (M)4.024.024.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.14-0.72-0.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.883.313.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.423.423.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.840.971.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.840.971.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.341.471.55
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.43$15.17$18.08
Upside / Downside-65.00%-57.28%-49.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5.725.675.615.555.505.445.61
Payout Ratio29.71%41.76%53.82%65.88%77.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.702.373.023.664.284.905.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.162.182.20
Year 2 PV (M)2.512.562.61
Year 3 PV (M)2.772.862.95
Year 4 PV (M)2.963.083.21
Year 5 PV (M)3.093.253.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)58.7361.7964.98
Equity Value (M)72.2275.7279.36
Shares Outstanding (M)3.423.423.42
Fair Value$21.13$22.16$23.22
Upside / Downside-40.48%-37.59%-34.59%

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