Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Chuo Warehouse Co.,Ltd. (9319.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,104.23 - $1,791.26$1,412.60
Multi-Stage$1,421.39 - $1,556.67$1,487.76
Blended Fair Value$1,450.18
Current Price$1,402.00
Upside3.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.36%3.51%32.6229.7226.8823.1323.0322.8725.1423.0623.0623.08
YoY Growth--9.77%10.55%16.21%0.46%0.71%-9.05%9.04%0.00%-0.11%-0.12%
Dividend Yield--2.38%2.26%2.46%2.38%2.20%2.31%2.39%1.85%2.12%2.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,843.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)672.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,171.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)368.74230.46138.28
Cash Retained (M)1,171.321,171.321,171.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-368.74-230.46-138.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)802.58940.861,033.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.5218.5218.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share43.3450.8055.78
LTM Dividend per Share36.3136.3136.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share43.3450.8055.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend79.6487.1192.09
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Fair Value$1,104.23$1,412.60$1,791.26
Upside / Downside-21.24%0.76%27.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,843.691,889.901,937.261,985.812,035.582,086.602,149.19
Payout Ratio36.47%47.17%57.88%68.59%79.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)672.37891.561,121.311,362.021,614.091,877.941,988.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Year 1 PV (M)811.25819.24827.23
Year 2 PV (M)928.40946.78965.34
Year 3 PV (M)1,026.121,056.741,087.97
Year 4 PV (M)1,106.481,150.731,196.30
Year 5 PV (M)1,171.391,230.241,291.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,279.9622,349.0323,460.64
Equity Value (M)26,323.6027,552.7728,828.92
Shares Outstanding (M)18.5218.5218.52
Fair Value$1,421.39$1,487.76$1,556.67
Upside / Downside1.38%6.12%11.03%

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