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Definitive Analysis

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The Shibusawa Warehouse Co., Ltd. (9304.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,030.91 - $1,630.13$1,304.53
Multi-Stage$935.12 - $1,018.21$975.93
Blended Fair Value$1,140.23
Current Price$1,158.00
Upside-1.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.55%12.37%29.7323.8121.1614.8213.5012.7012.0313.9010.5910.59
YoY Growth--24.87%12.51%42.77%9.81%6.31%5.50%-13.41%31.25%0.00%14.29%
Dividend Yield--2.95%2.86%3.03%2.79%2.55%2.45%2.82%3.22%2.33%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,548.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,034.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,514.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,109.60693.50416.10
Cash Retained (M)3,514.003,514.003,514.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,109.60-693.50-416.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,404.402,820.503,097.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)57.4257.4257.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share41.8749.1253.95
LTM Dividend per Share35.4235.4235.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share41.8749.1253.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend77.3084.5489.37
WACC / Discount Rate12.53%12.53%12.53%
Growth Rate4.68%5.68%6.68%
Fair Value$1,030.91$1,304.53$1,630.13
Upside / Downside-10.98%12.65%40.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,548.005,863.346,196.606,548.816,921.037,314.417,533.85
Payout Ratio36.66%47.33%58.00%68.66%79.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,034.002,775.093,593.854,496.725,490.626,582.976,968.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.53%12.53%12.53%
Growth Rate4.68%5.68%6.68%
Year 1 PV (M)2,442.692,466.022,489.36
Year 2 PV (M)2,784.472,837.932,891.89
Year 3 PV (M)3,066.693,155.423,245.84
Year 4 PV (M)3,296.003,423.763,555.19
Year 5 PV (M)3,478.403,647.743,823.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,626.9440,507.4642,460.52
Equity Value (M)53,695.2056,038.3358,466.42
Shares Outstanding (M)57.4257.4257.42
Fair Value$935.12$975.93$1,018.21
Upside / Downside-19.25%-15.72%-12.07%

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