Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Sumitomo Warehouse Co., Ltd. (9303.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,832.90 - $4,379.14$3,550.01
Multi-Stage$2,436.21 - $2,648.15$2,540.32
Blended Fair Value$3,045.16
Current Price$3,115.00
Upside-2.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.85%13.50%102.45103.03113.3165.4157.3251.2838.3937.7034.6930.08
YoY Growth---0.57%-9.07%73.23%14.11%11.79%33.58%1.82%8.69%15.32%4.12%
Dividend Yield--3.45%3.92%4.79%3.26%3.59%3.96%2.71%2.81%2.44%2.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,809.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,006.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,803.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,361.802,726.131,635.68
Cash Retained (M)13,803.0013,803.0013,803.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,361.80-2,726.13-1,635.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,441.2011,076.8812,167.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77.2777.2777.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share122.19143.36157.47
LTM Dividend per Share103.62103.62103.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share122.19143.36157.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend225.81246.98261.09
WACC / Discount Rate13.91%13.91%13.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,832.90$3,550.01$4,379.14
Upside / Downside-9.06%13.96%40.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,809.0023,226.5924,736.3126,344.1728,056.5429,880.2230,776.63
Payout Ratio36.71%47.37%58.03%68.68%79.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,006.0011,001.9014,353.4418,094.1922,260.6026,892.2028,468.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate13.91%13.91%13.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9,567.789,658.479,749.16
Year 2 PV (M)10,855.3411,062.1111,270.82
Year 3 PV (M)11,900.6512,242.2712,590.37
Year 4 PV (M)12,732.4613,222.1113,725.75
Year 5 PV (M)13,376.5914,022.6814,693.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)129,803.52136,073.08142,582.59
Equity Value (M)188,236.34196,280.72204,612.20
Shares Outstanding (M)77.2777.2777.27
Fair Value$2,436.21$2,540.32$2,648.15
Upside / Downside-21.79%-18.45%-14.99%

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