Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. (9201.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,035.71 - $10,511.29$7,108.83
Multi-Stage$8,590.81 - $9,444.44$9,009.42
Blended Fair Value$8,059.13
Current Price$2,983.00
Upside170.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.58%2.49%84.8954.800.000.020.0787.3790.13118.5399.5986.34
YoY Growth--54.91%1,196,100.00%-71.43%-77.42%-99.92%-3.05%-23.97%19.02%15.35%30.03%
Dividend Yield--2.89%2.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.50%2.57%3.02%2.87%2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)124,807.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37,500.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)87,307.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24,961.4015,600.889,360.53
Cash Retained (M)87,307.0087,307.0087,307.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-24,961.40-15,600.88-9,360.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)62,345.6071,706.1377,946.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)436.58436.58436.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share142.80164.24178.54
LTM Dividend per Share85.8985.8985.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share142.80164.24178.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend228.70250.14264.43
WACC / Discount Rate5.80%5.80%5.80%
Growth Rate1.21%2.21%3.21%
Fair Value$5,035.71$7,108.83$10,511.29
Upside / Downside68.81%138.31%252.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)124,807.00127,563.35130,380.58133,260.02136,203.06139,211.10143,387.43
Payout Ratio30.05%42.04%54.03%66.02%78.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37,500.0053,623.9570,441.8087,976.34106,251.03125,289.99132,633.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.80%5.80%5.80%
Growth Rate1.21%2.21%3.21%
Year 1 PV (M)50,186.0550,681.9151,177.78
Year 2 PV (M)61,699.1062,924.3764,161.69
Year 3 PV (M)72,117.1374,276.0076,477.53
Year 4 PV (M)81,513.5584,783.2288,150.29
Year 5 PV (M)89,957.4794,490.3299,204.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,395,122.303,566,198.863,744,103.24
Equity Value (M)3,750,595.593,933,354.694,123,274.62
Shares Outstanding (M)436.58436.58436.58
Fair Value$8,590.81$9,009.42$9,444.44
Upside / Downside187.99%202.03%216.61%

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