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Definitive Analysis

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Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$142,959.32 - $235,098.31$183,939.95
Multi-Stage$294,849.27 - $323,509.41$308,904.08
Blended Fair Value$246,422.02
Current Price$148,000.00
Upside66.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.03%4.70%6,082.686,058.775,869.366,015.176,213.076,073.115,179.114,593.344,633.594,387.67
YoY Growth--0.39%3.23%-2.42%-3.19%2.30%17.26%12.75%-0.87%5.60%14.16%
Dividend Yield--5.15%4.29%3.84%3.80%5.16%3.52%3.52%3.51%3.11%3.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,839.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,467.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)372.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,767.891,104.93662.96
Cash Retained (M)372.00372.00372.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,767.89-1,104.93-662.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,395.90-732.94-290.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.700.700.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share-2,007.91-1,054.28-418.53
LTM Dividend per Share12,179.9112,179.9112,179.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share-2,007.91-1,054.28-418.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend10,172.0011,125.6311,761.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-0.59%0.41%1.41%
Fair Value$142,959.32$183,939.95$235,098.31
Upside / Downside-3.41%24.28%58.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,839.478,875.538,911.738,948.088,984.589,021.239,291.87
Payout Ratio95.79%94.63%93.47%92.32%91.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,467.478,399.208,330.248,260.578,190.208,119.118,594.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-0.59%0.41%1.41%
Year 1 PV (M)7,809.427,887.987,966.54
Year 2 PV (M)7,201.437,347.047,494.11
Year 3 PV (M)6,639.756,842.157,048.62
Year 4 PV (M)6,120.916,370.956,628.57
Year 5 PV (M)5,641.715,931.246,232.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)171,565.99180,370.76189,533.36
Equity Value (M)204,979.21214,750.12224,903.74
Shares Outstanding (M)0.700.700.70
Fair Value$294,849.27$308,904.08$323,509.41
Upside / Downside99.22%108.72%118.59%

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