Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Daiwa Office Investment Corporation (8976.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - OfficeSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$215,795.11 - $315,827.79$264,019.54
Multi-Stage$315,199.73 - $344,571.68$329,610.61
Blended Fair Value$296,815.08
Current Price$301,500.00
Upside-1.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.64%8.17%13,781.1113,781.7314,291.6414,333.6713,827.3012,701.9411,505.4411,235.5110,279.848,068.92
YoY Growth--0.00%-3.57%-0.29%3.66%8.86%10.40%2.40%9.30%27.40%28.39%
Dividend Yield--4.59%4.07%4.22%8.03%9.23%6.18%6.56%8.08%7.10%5.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26,519.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,379.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,140.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,303.943,314.961,988.98
Cash Retained (M)10,140.4610,140.4610,140.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,303.94-3,314.96-1,988.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,836.526,825.508,151.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.950.950.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share5,086.717,178.588,573.16
LTM Dividend per Share17,226.5117,226.5117,226.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share5,086.717,178.588,573.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend22,313.2324,405.0925,799.67
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate-0.36%0.64%1.64%
Fair Value$215,795.11$264,019.54$315,827.79
Upside / Downside-28.43%-12.43%4.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26,519.6826,690.5426,862.4927,035.5527,209.7227,385.0228,206.57
Payout Ratio61.76%67.41%73.06%78.71%84.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,379.2217,992.0919,625.0621,278.3322,952.0824,646.5226,091.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate-0.36%0.64%1.64%
Year 1 PV (M)16,201.6716,364.2616,526.86
Year 2 PV (M)15,913.5516,234.5616,558.78
Year 3 PV (M)15,537.1616,009.6516,491.62
Year 4 PV (M)15,091.5715,706.5616,340.17
Year 5 PV (M)14,593.0415,340.1416,117.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)222,359.56233,743.44245,588.87
Equity Value (M)299,696.55313,398.63327,623.84
Shares Outstanding (M)0.950.950.95
Fair Value$315,199.73$329,610.61$344,571.68
Upside / Downside4.54%9.32%14.29%

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