Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Japan Logistics Fund, Inc. (8967.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70,837.56 - $108,799.59$88,530.87
Multi-Stage$161,841.78 - $177,746.45$169,639.49
Blended Fair Value$129,085.18
Current Price$93,800.00
Upside37.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%3,520.383,494.143,422.313,145.684,759.210.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.75%2.10%8.79%-33.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.92%4.09%3.42%2.93%4.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,684.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19,738.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,945.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,336.902,710.561,626.34
Cash Retained (M)1,945.661,945.661,945.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,336.90-2,710.56-1,626.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,391.24-764.90319.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.782.782.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-859.60-274.97114.79
LTM Dividend per Share7,095.717,095.717,095.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share-859.60-274.97114.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend6,236.106,820.747,210.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$70,837.56$88,530.87$108,799.59
Upside / Downside-24.48%-5.62%15.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,684.4921,467.6521,252.9721,040.4420,830.0420,621.7421,240.39
Payout Ratio91.03%90.82%90.62%90.41%90.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19,738.8419,497.3319,258.6919,022.8718,789.8418,559.5619,647.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)18,100.7918,285.5018,470.20
Year 2 PV (M)16,598.6016,939.0817,283.01
Year 3 PV (M)15,221.0015,691.7216,172.05
Year 4 PV (M)13,957.6614,536.1415,132.42
Year 5 PV (M)12,799.1113,465.5914,159.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)373,534.34392,985.14413,237.91
Equity Value (M)450,211.51471,903.17494,455.13
Shares Outstanding (M)2.782.782.78
Fair Value$161,841.78$169,639.49$177,746.45
Upside / Downside72.54%80.85%89.50%

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