Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Invincible Investment Corporation (8963.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - Hotel & MotelSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$306,711.53 - $1,455,305.34$672,727.26
Multi-Stage$167,642.39 - $183,116.76$175,239.07
Blended Fair Value$423,983.16
Current Price$62,000.00
Upside583.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.04%0.00%3,281.021,916.28277.13152.361,497.912,692.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--71.22%591.46%81.89%-89.83%-44.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.96%3.14%0.54%0.42%4.52%4.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)53,437.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32,882.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,555.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,687.546,679.714,007.83
Cash Retained (M)20,555.2220,555.2220,555.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,687.54-6,679.71-4,007.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,867.6813,875.5116,547.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.307.307.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,351.271,900.092,265.98
LTM Dividend per Share4,502.884,502.884,502.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,351.271,900.092,265.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend5,854.156,402.986,768.86
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$306,711.53$672,727.26$1,455,305.34
Upside / Downside394.70%985.04%2,247.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)53,437.7156,911.1660,610.3864,550.0668,745.8173,214.2975,410.72
Payout Ratio61.53%67.23%72.92%78.61%84.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32,882.4938,259.8944,197.4250,745.1957,957.4365,892.8669,754.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)35,251.9335,586.0735,920.21
Year 2 PV (M)37,521.0838,235.7538,957.16
Year 3 PV (M)39,692.8740,832.3141,993.35
Year 4 PV (M)41,770.1443,376.5045,028.75
Year 5 PV (M)43,755.6745,869.0948,063.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,026,223.431,075,790.411,127,254.43
Equity Value (M)1,224,215.121,279,690.121,337,217.29
Shares Outstanding (M)7.307.307.30
Fair Value$167,642.39$175,239.07$183,116.76
Upside / Downside170.39%182.64%195.35%

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