Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tokyo Rakutenchi Co.,Ltd. (8842.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$866.26 - $1,239.47$1,049.15
Multi-Stage$1,451.77 - $1,587.57$1,518.39
Blended Fair Value$1,283.77
Current Price$6,700.00
Upside-80.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.69%5.20%99.7560.0659.9979.7759.9760.0379.8159.9859.8960.04
YoY Growth--66.08%0.12%-24.81%33.03%-0.10%-24.79%33.07%0.15%-0.25%-0.05%
Dividend Yield--1.49%1.39%1.52%1.87%1.48%1.19%1.45%1.14%1.24%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)754.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)597.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)156.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)150.8194.2556.55
Cash Retained (M)156.22156.22156.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-150.81-94.25-56.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.4161.9799.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.995.995.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.9010.3416.63
LTM Dividend per Share99.7599.7599.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.9010.3416.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.65110.09116.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate-1.88%-0.88%0.12%
Fair Value$866.26$1,049.15$1,239.47
Upside / Downside-87.07%-84.34%-81.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)754.03747.38740.78734.25727.77721.34742.98
Payout Ratio79.28%81.43%83.57%85.71%87.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)597.81608.56619.07629.34639.39649.21687.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate-1.88%-0.88%0.12%
Year 1 PV (M)550.06555.67561.28
Year 2 PV (M)505.78516.14526.61
Year 3 PV (M)464.75479.11493.76
Year 4 PV (M)426.79444.46462.67
Year 5 PV (M)391.69412.06433.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,361.886,692.757,037.25
Equity Value (M)8,700.969,100.199,514.83
Shares Outstanding (M)5.995.995.99
Fair Value$1,451.77$1,518.39$1,587.57
Upside / Downside-78.33%-77.34%-76.30%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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