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Definitive Analysis

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Mitsubishi HC Capital Inc. (8593.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19,038.90 - $22,431.05$21,021.18
Multi-Stage$6,262.81 - $6,866.36$6,558.98
Blended Fair Value$13,790.08
Current Price$1,222.50
Upside1,028.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.89%21.84%38.9735.9629.9520.6415.6416.4112.388.818.256.55
YoY Growth--8.38%20.04%45.11%31.96%-4.66%32.57%40.43%6.78%25.99%21.18%
Dividend Yield--3.67%3.35%3.51%3.30%2.63%3.22%2.13%1.29%1.34%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)162,236.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56,058.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)106,178.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32,447.2020,279.5012,167.70
Cash Retained (M)106,178.00106,178.00106,178.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-32,447.20-20,279.50-12,167.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)73,730.8085,898.5094,010.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,438.391,438.391,438.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share51.2659.7265.36
LTM Dividend per Share38.9738.9738.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share51.2659.7265.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend90.2398.69104.33
WACC / Discount Rate4.88%4.88%4.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19,038.90$21,021.18$22,431.05
Upside / Downside1,457.37%1,619.52%1,734.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)162,236.00172,781.34184,012.13195,972.92208,711.15222,277.38228,945.70
Payout Ratio34.55%45.64%56.73%67.82%78.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56,058.0078,862.06104,393.80132,911.47164,695.38200,049.64211,774.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.88%4.88%4.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)74,483.6775,189.6875,895.68
Year 2 PV (M)93,123.7994,897.5496,688.02
Year 3 PV (M)111,980.24115,194.79118,470.28
Year 4 PV (M)131,054.92136,094.92141,278.91
Year 5 PV (M)150,349.74157,611.68165,151.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,447,399.668,855,412.229,279,040.38
Equity Value (M)9,008,392.029,434,400.839,876,524.84
Shares Outstanding (M)1,438.391,438.391,438.39
Fair Value$6,262.81$6,558.98$6,866.36
Upside / Downside412.30%436.52%461.67%

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