Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

San-Ai Obbli Co., Ltd. (8097.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,299.03 - $2,148.17$1,675.27
Multi-Stage$2,445.50 - $2,681.72$2,561.36
Blended Fair Value$2,118.31
Current Price$1,815.00
Upside16.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS26.72%19.60%101.7269.7749.2130.7831.1331.1331.3626.9722.0023.05
YoY Growth--45.78%41.79%59.87%-1.13%0.00%-0.71%16.25%22.61%-4.56%35.65%
Dividend Yield--5.60%3.29%3.24%3.20%2.42%3.20%2.90%1.97%1.92%3.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,116.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,282.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)834.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,423.20889.50533.70
Cash Retained (M)834.00834.00834.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,423.20-889.50-533.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)-589.20-55.50300.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.7362.7362.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share-9.39-0.884.79
LTM Dividend per Share100.14100.14100.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share-9.39-0.884.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend90.7599.26104.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.80%6.80%6.80%
Growth Rate-0.18%0.82%1.82%
Fair Value$1,299.03$1,675.27$2,148.17
Upside / Downside-28.43%-7.70%18.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,116.007,174.677,233.827,293.467,353.597,414.227,636.64
Payout Ratio88.28%88.62%88.97%89.31%89.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,282.006,358.476,435.786,513.936,592.936,672.797,063.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.80%6.80%6.80%
Growth Rate-0.18%0.82%1.82%
Year 1 PV (M)5,894.685,953.736,012.78
Year 2 PV (M)5,531.165,642.545,755.02
Year 3 PV (M)5,189.985,347.525,508.22
Year 4 PV (M)4,869.785,067.865,271.93
Year 5 PV (M)4,569.264,802.755,045.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)127,355.26133,863.31140,634.74
Equity Value (M)153,410.12160,677.72168,228.39
Shares Outstanding (M)62.7362.7362.73
Fair Value$2,445.50$2,561.36$2,681.72
Upside / Downside34.74%41.12%47.75%

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