Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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JSP Corporation (7942.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,668.68 - $20,121.93$9,399.03
Multi-Stage$4,931.75 - $5,401.51$5,162.27
Blended Fair Value$7,280.65
Current Price$1,941.00
Upside275.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.06%8.89%79.9856.8556.8556.8556.8556.8556.8562.5451.1734.11
YoY Growth--40.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-9.09%22.22%50.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.24%2.46%3.04%4.08%3.56%3.90%2.71%1.87%1.51%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,349.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,096.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,253.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,069.80668.63401.18
Cash Retained (M)3,253.003,253.003,253.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,069.80-668.63-401.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,183.202,584.382,851.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.2126.2126.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share83.3098.61108.82
LTM Dividend per Share79.9879.9879.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share83.3098.61108.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend163.28178.59188.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.94%6.94%6.94%
Growth Rate3.94%4.94%5.94%
Fair Value$5,668.68$9,399.03$20,121.93
Upside / Downside192.05%384.24%936.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,349.005,613.495,891.056,182.346,488.036,808.847,013.10
Payout Ratio39.18%49.35%59.51%69.67%79.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,096.002,770.143,505.824,307.485,179.856,127.956,487.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.94%6.94%6.94%
Growth Rate3.94%4.94%5.94%
Year 1 PV (M)2,565.722,590.402,615.08
Year 2 PV (M)3,007.493,065.633,124.34
Year 3 PV (M)3,422.513,522.253,623.90
Year 4 PV (M)3,811.943,960.764,113.90
Year 5 PV (M)4,176.884,381.704,594.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)112,265.01117,770.16123,489.18
Equity Value (M)129,249.55135,290.90141,560.87
Shares Outstanding (M)26.2126.2126.21
Fair Value$4,931.75$5,162.27$5,401.51
Upside / Downside154.08%165.96%178.28%

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