Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Lebledor F&B Co., Ltd. (7757.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$175.63 - $268.71$219.13
Multi-Stage$385.34 - $423.65$404.12
Blended Fair Value$311.62
Current Price$155.50
Upside100.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%8.483.992.492.040.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--112.50%60.00%22.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.79%1.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)430.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)273.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)156.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)86.0853.8032.28
Cash Retained (M)156.43156.43156.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-86.08-53.80-32.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)70.35102.63124.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.9821.9821.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.204.675.65
LTM Dividend per Share12.4612.4612.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.204.675.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.6617.1318.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$175.63$219.13$268.71
Upside / Downside12.95%40.92%72.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)430.40426.10421.84417.62413.44409.31421.59
Payout Ratio63.66%68.92%74.19%79.46%84.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)273.98293.69312.97331.85350.31368.38389.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)272.36275.14277.92
Year 2 PV (M)269.18274.70280.27
Year 3 PV (M)264.69272.87281.22
Year 4 PV (M)259.13269.86280.93
Year 5 PV (M)252.70265.86279.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,152.517,524.967,912.76
Equity Value (M)8,470.568,883.399,312.67
Shares Outstanding (M)21.9821.9821.98
Fair Value$385.34$404.12$423.65
Upside / Downside147.81%159.88%172.44%

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