Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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EXEDY Corporation (7278.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,144.73 - $9,749.33$7,006.05
Multi-Stage$8,237.07 - $9,031.52$8,626.77
Blended Fair Value$7,816.41
Current Price$5,200.00
Upside50.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.08%6.18%185.20130.30118.1686.8893.01114.59120.91108.1489.0288.94
YoY Growth--42.14%10.27%36.01%-6.60%-18.83%-5.23%11.81%21.48%0.09%-12.56%
Dividend Yield--4.48%4.31%4.89%5.05%5.71%7.16%5.21%3.15%2.81%4.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,715.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,678.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,037.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,543.001,589.38953.63
Cash Retained (M)3,037.003,037.003,037.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,543.00-1,589.38-953.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)494.001,447.632,083.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.8137.8137.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.0638.2855.10
LTM Dividend per Share255.95255.95255.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.0638.2855.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend269.01294.23311.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.24%2.24%3.24%
Fair Value$5,144.73$7,006.05$9,749.33
Upside / Downside-1.06%34.73%87.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,715.0013,000.2613,291.9113,590.1113,895.0014,206.7314,632.93
Payout Ratio76.11%78.89%81.67%84.45%87.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,678.0010,256.1410,855.3611,476.2912,119.6312,786.0513,535.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.24%2.24%3.24%
Year 1 PV (M)9,532.659,626.809,720.96
Year 2 PV (M)9,377.849,564.019,752.01
Year 3 PV (M)9,214.899,490.649,771.85
Year 4 PV (M)9,044.979,407.659,781.14
Year 5 PV (M)8,869.199,315.949,780.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)265,423.21278,792.89292,695.98
Equity Value (M)311,462.74326,197.94341,502.45
Shares Outstanding (M)37.8137.8137.81
Fair Value$8,237.07$8,626.77$9,031.52
Upside / Downside58.41%65.90%73.68%

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