Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

T.RAD Co., Ltd. (7236.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$152,175.80 - $179,389.58$168,067.56
Multi-Stage$106,088.08 - $116,753.72$111,318.33
Blended Fair Value$139,692.95
Current Price$4,420.00
Upside3,060.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.75%6.63%194.1881.69203.3643.7255.86106.58123.7074.2275.4663.79
YoY Growth--137.71%-59.83%365.12%-21.73%-47.59%-13.84%66.67%-1.65%18.29%-37.60%
Dividend Yield--4.39%2.20%11.03%1.67%2.09%8.01%6.32%2.16%2.13%3.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,969.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,545.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,424.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,193.80746.13447.68
Cash Retained (M)4,424.004,424.004,424.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,193.80-746.13-447.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,230.203,677.883,976.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.436.436.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share502.60572.25618.69
LTM Dividend per Share240.39240.39240.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share502.60572.25618.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend742.99812.64859.08
WACC / Discount Rate-0.61%-0.61%-0.61%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Fair Value$152,175.80$168,067.56$179,389.58
Upside / Downside3,342.89%3,702.43%3,958.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,969.006,172.436,382.796,600.326,825.277,057.887,269.62
Payout Ratio25.88%38.71%51.53%64.35%77.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,545.002,389.163,289.074,247.545,267.526,352.096,724.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.61%-0.61%-0.61%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Year 1 PV (M)2,380.652,403.902,427.15
Year 2 PV (M)3,265.683,329.773,394.48
Year 3 PV (M)4,202.324,326.634,453.37
Year 4 PV (M)5,192.885,398.705,610.58
Year 5 PV (M)6,239.786,550.446,873.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)660,549.83693,436.73727,620.64
Equity Value (M)681,831.14715,446.16750,379.56
Shares Outstanding (M)6.436.436.43
Fair Value$106,088.08$111,318.33$116,753.72
Upside / Downside2,300.18%2,418.51%2,541.49%

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