Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd. (7181.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,625.75 - $2,156.71$1,901.58
Multi-Stage$3,237.66 - $3,577.08$3,403.85
Blended Fair Value$2,652.71
Current Price$4,193.00
Upside-36.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.08%8.48%100.5694.4395.14160.8456.69171.06108.1395.3988.9865.02
YoY Growth--6.49%-0.75%-40.85%183.72%-66.86%58.20%13.36%7.21%36.85%45.92%
Dividend Yield--3.08%3.00%4.39%7.41%2.76%12.11%5.41%4.19%3.59%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)154,447.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37,933.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)116,514.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30,889.4019,305.8811,583.53
Cash Retained (M)116,514.00116,514.00116,514.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-30,889.40-19,305.88-11,583.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)85,624.6097,208.13104,930.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)377.22377.22377.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share226.99257.70278.17
LTM Dividend per Share100.56100.56100.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share226.99257.70278.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend327.55358.26378.73
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate-9.12%-8.12%-7.12%
Fair Value$1,625.75$1,901.58$2,156.71
Upside / Downside-61.23%-54.65%-48.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)154,447.00141,907.64130,386.34119,800.44110,073.99101,137.23104,171.34
Payout Ratio24.56%37.65%50.74%63.82%76.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37,933.0053,425.9966,153.2376,461.6984,660.2391,023.5096,358.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate-9.12%-8.12%-7.12%
Year 1 PV (M)48,396.1948,928.7149,461.24
Year 2 PV (M)54,283.5555,484.7356,699.06
Year 3 PV (M)56,835.5158,732.3760,670.98
Year 4 PV (M)57,005.1259,555.8462,191.21
Year 5 PV (M)55,519.6458,642.1261,903.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)949,266.771,002,654.551,058,417.82
Equity Value (M)1,221,306.791,283,998.331,349,343.84
Shares Outstanding (M)377.22377.22377.22
Fair Value$3,237.66$3,403.85$3,577.08
Upside / Downside-22.78%-18.82%-14.69%

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