Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (6981.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,574.92 - $2,650.63$2,045.80
Multi-Stage$1,652.54 - $1,804.44$1,727.10
Blended Fair Value$1,886.45
Current Price$2,815.50
Upside-33.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.13%12.33%54.7950.9549.6341.4136.2432.3231.0627.5425.1822.84
YoY Growth--7.54%2.65%19.85%14.29%12.10%4.08%12.77%9.36%10.27%33.33%
Dividend Yield--2.54%1.56%1.81%1.68%1.28%1.54%1.83%1.33%1.33%1.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235,877.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)106,443.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)129,434.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47,175.4029,484.6317,690.78
Cash Retained (M)129,434.00129,434.00129,434.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-47,175.40-29,484.63-17,690.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)82,258.6099,949.38111,743.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,854.001,854.001,854.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share44.3753.9160.27
LTM Dividend per Share57.4157.4157.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share44.3753.9160.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend101.78111.32117.68
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate3.27%4.27%5.27%
Fair Value$1,574.92$2,045.80$2,650.63
Upside / Downside-44.06%-27.34%-5.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235,877.00245,939.17256,430.57267,369.52278,775.11290,667.25299,387.27
Payout Ratio45.13%54.10%63.08%72.05%81.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)106,443.00133,056.01161,745.87192,641.33225,878.36261,600.53276,933.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate3.27%4.27%5.27%
Year 1 PV (M)119,865.82121,026.57122,187.32
Year 2 PV (M)131,266.80133,821.42136,400.66
Year 3 PV (M)140,841.95144,973.33149,184.73
Year 4 PV (M)148,770.92154,617.81160,635.37
Year 5 PV (M)155,218.29162,880.73170,842.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,367,831.482,484,720.872,606,181.61
Equity Value (M)3,063,795.263,202,040.733,345,432.51
Shares Outstanding (M)1,854.001,854.001,854.00
Fair Value$1,652.54$1,727.10$1,804.44
Upside / Downside-41.31%-38.66%-35.91%

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