Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Jibeier Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (688566.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.18 - $49.66$33.03
Multi-Stage$17.43 - $19.01$18.20
Blended Fair Value$25.62
Current Price$35.69
Upside-28.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS56.81%0.00%0.520.230.450.450.230.050.850.030.020.00
YoY Growth--129.46%-50.00%0.00%100.00%313.22%-93.58%3,272.69%36.40%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.17%0.90%1.57%2.23%1.02%0.12%1.87%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)241.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)103.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)137.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.3330.2118.13
Cash Retained (M)137.96137.96137.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.33-30.21-18.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)89.63107.76119.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)197.95197.95197.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.540.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.540.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.18$33.03$49.66
Upside / Downside-35.04%-7.45%39.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)241.67257.38274.11291.92310.90331.11341.04
Payout Ratio42.91%52.33%61.75%71.16%80.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)103.70134.68169.25207.75250.53298.00315.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)121.35122.50123.65
Year 2 PV (M)137.40140.02142.66
Year 3 PV (M)151.96156.32160.76
Year 4 PV (M)165.11171.46177.99
Year 5 PV (M)176.95185.50194.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,697.462,827.742,963.02
Equity Value (M)3,450.233,603.543,762.46
Shares Outstanding (M)197.95197.95197.95
Fair Value$17.43$18.20$19.01
Upside / Downside-51.16%-48.99%-46.74%

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