Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.,Ltd (688526.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.82 - $60.45$34.88
Multi-Stage$15.98 - $17.44$16.69
Blended Fair Value$25.79
Current Price$17.72
Upside45.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.99%0.00%0.430.210.200.290.000.180.260.100.060.00
YoY Growth--110.72%3.86%-31.67%36,981.60%-99.57%-29.87%158.82%57.36%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.77%1.10%0.73%1.15%0.00%0.58%0.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)459.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)199.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)259.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.9157.4434.47
Cash Retained (M)259.76259.76259.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.91-57.44-34.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)167.85202.31225.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)471.79471.79471.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.82$34.88$60.45
Upside / Downside28.79%96.84%241.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)459.54489.41521.22555.10591.18629.61648.50
Payout Ratio43.47%52.78%62.08%71.39%80.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)199.78258.31323.60396.29477.06566.65599.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)234.54236.76238.98
Year 2 PV (M)266.78271.86276.99
Year 3 PV (M)296.63305.15313.82
Year 4 PV (M)324.22336.69349.52
Year 5 PV (M)349.67366.56384.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,065.976,358.966,663.16
Equity Value (M)7,537.807,875.978,226.56
Shares Outstanding (M)471.79471.79471.79
Fair Value$15.98$16.69$17.44
Upside / Downside-9.84%-5.79%-1.60%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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