Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai BOCHU Electronic Technology Corporation Limited. (688188.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.20 - $170.18$113.87
Multi-Stage$61.53 - $67.04$64.23
Blended Fair Value$89.05
Current Price$153.78
Upside-42.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS66.76%0.00%2.080.670.770.520.300.160.230.120.000.00
YoY Growth--212.06%-14.08%49.15%74.32%85.00%-29.83%90.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.60%0.48%0.83%0.47%0.28%0.36%0.26%0.14%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,061.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)592.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)468.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)212.26132.6679.60
Cash Retained (M)468.82468.82468.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-212.26-132.66-79.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)256.56336.16389.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)248.39248.39248.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.031.351.57
LTM Dividend per Share2.392.392.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.031.351.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.423.743.95
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.20$113.87$170.18
Upside / Downside-47.85%-25.95%10.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,061.281,130.261,203.731,281.971,365.301,454.041,497.67
Payout Ratio55.83%62.66%69.50%76.33%83.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)592.46708.22836.53978.531,135.451,308.641,385.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)637.82643.86649.91
Year 2 PV (M)678.47691.39704.44
Year 3 PV (M)714.74735.25756.16
Year 4 PV (M)746.90775.63805.17
Year 5 PV (M)775.25812.69851.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,729.9412,296.5012,884.74
Equity Value (M)15,283.1115,955.3316,651.99
Shares Outstanding (M)248.39248.39248.39
Fair Value$61.53$64.23$67.04
Upside / Downside-59.99%-58.23%-56.41%

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