Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sumida Corporation (6817.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,378.61 - $12,128.00$11,365.71
Multi-Stage$1,756.75 - $1,919.20$1,836.50
Blended Fair Value$6,601.11
Current Price$1,086.00
Upside507.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.36%14.36%53.3149.5120.4721.314.9422.0036.1824.9820.2313.97
YoY Growth--7.66%141.91%-3.95%331.71%-77.56%-39.18%44.82%23.51%44.83%0.22%
Dividend Yield--5.51%4.02%1.23%2.27%0.46%3.32%2.27%1.82%1.22%1.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,026.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,750.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)276.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)405.20253.25151.95
Cash Retained (M)276.00276.00276.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-405.20-253.25-151.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)-129.2022.75124.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.2233.2233.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share-3.890.683.73
LTM Dividend per Share52.6852.6852.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share-3.890.683.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend48.7953.3656.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,378.61$11,365.71$12,128.00
Upside / Downside303.19%946.57%1,016.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,026.002,157.692,297.942,447.312,606.382,775.802,859.07
Payout Ratio86.38%87.10%87.83%88.55%89.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,750.001,879.382,018.192,167.112,326.862,498.222,644.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,745.231,761.781,778.32
Year 2 PV (M)1,740.361,773.511,806.97
Year 3 PV (M)1,735.381,785.201,835.96
Year 4 PV (M)1,730.311,796.851,865.29
Year 5 PV (M)1,725.131,808.451,894.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)49,687.1152,087.0254,578.78
Equity Value (M)58,363.5361,012.8163,760.29
Shares Outstanding (M)33.2233.2233.22
Fair Value$1,756.75$1,836.50$1,919.20
Upside / Downside61.76%69.11%76.72%

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