Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Elecom Co., Ltd. (6750.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,291.41 - $2,031.90$1,630.74
Multi-Stage$1,438.18 - $1,571.02$1,503.38
Blended Fair Value$1,567.06
Current Price$1,810.00
Upside-13.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.85%13.33%47.2645.8742.6043.8937.2232.3929.5524.1323.1117.81
YoY Growth--3.04%7.67%-2.94%17.91%14.92%9.63%22.43%4.43%29.78%31.64%
Dividend Yield--2.61%2.82%2.93%2.88%1.79%1.23%1.59%1.86%2.03%1.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,641.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,664.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,977.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,928.201,205.13723.08
Cash Retained (M)5,977.005,977.005,977.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,928.20-1,205.13-723.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,048.804,771.885,253.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)76.7876.7876.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share52.7362.1568.43
LTM Dividend per Share47.7247.7247.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share52.7362.1568.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.45109.87116.15
WACC / Discount Rate10.50%10.50%10.50%
Growth Rate2.52%3.52%4.52%
Fair Value$1,291.41$1,630.74$2,031.90
Upside / Downside-28.65%-9.90%12.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,641.009,980.7010,332.3810,696.4411,073.3311,463.5111,807.41
Payout Ratio38.00%48.40%58.80%69.20%79.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,664.004,831.016,075.717,402.128,814.4710,317.1610,921.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.50%10.50%10.50%
Growth Rate2.52%3.52%4.52%
Year 1 PV (M)4,329.794,372.024,414.25
Year 2 PV (M)4,880.394,976.065,072.66
Year 3 PV (M)5,328.975,486.435,646.96
Year 4 PV (M)5,687.375,912.536,144.32
Year 5 PV (M)5,966.296,262.996,571.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)84,232.0588,420.9192,774.79
Equity Value (M)110,424.86115,430.94120,624.36
Shares Outstanding (M)76.7876.7876.78
Fair Value$1,438.18$1,503.38$1,571.02
Upside / Downside-20.54%-16.94%-13.20%

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