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Definitive Analysis

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Yuexiu Services Group Limited (6626.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.03 - $109.11$102.25
Multi-Stage$16.74 - $18.30$17.51
Blended Fair Value$59.88
Current Price$2.63
Upside2,176.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS82.44%0.00%0.170.180.090.060.000.010.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth---4.41%101.34%50.64%2,242.33%-70.23%29.38%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.60%7.78%3.07%2.13%0.06%0.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)831.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)535.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)296.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.39104.0062.40
Cash Retained (M)296.84296.84296.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.39-104.00-62.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)130.45192.85234.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,516.411,516.411,516.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$50.03$102.25$109.11
Upside / Downside1,802.41%3,787.94%4,048.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)831.96886.04943.631,004.971,070.291,139.861,174.06
Payout Ratio64.32%69.46%74.59%79.73%84.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)535.12615.41703.88801.24908.291,025.881,086.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)572.82578.25583.68
Year 2 PV (M)609.83621.45633.17
Year 3 PV (M)646.15664.70683.60
Year 4 PV (M)681.80708.02734.99
Year 5 PV (M)716.77751.39787.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,151.0823,220.9924,331.84
Equity Value (M)25,378.4626,544.8027,754.62
Shares Outstanding (M)1,516.411,516.411,516.41
Fair Value$16.74$17.51$18.30
Upside / Downside536.35%565.59%595.93%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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