Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Denyo Co., Ltd. (6517.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,459.32 - $6,214.55$4,613.54
Multi-Stage$3,263.49 - $3,568.64$3,413.26
Blended Fair Value$4,013.40
Current Price$2,966.00
Upside35.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.36%10.39%73.0653.2450.3249.5948.5146.7148.4232.2533.5632.44
YoY Growth--37.24%5.81%1.47%2.21%3.86%-3.52%50.15%-3.92%3.45%19.35%
Dividend Yield--2.58%1.88%2.44%3.12%2.49%2.45%3.19%1.88%1.72%3.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,970.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,071.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,898.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)994.00621.25372.75
Cash Retained (M)3,898.503,898.503,898.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-994.00-621.25-372.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,904.503,277.253,525.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.5320.5320.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share141.47159.63171.73
LTM Dividend per Share52.1952.1952.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share141.47159.63171.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend193.67211.82223.93
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate3.86%4.86%5.86%
Fair Value$3,459.32$4,613.54$6,214.55
Upside / Downside16.63%55.55%109.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,970.005,211.365,464.455,729.826,008.096,299.866,488.86
Payout Ratio21.56%35.25%48.94%62.62%76.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,071.501,836.872,674.063,588.234,584.885,669.886,002.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate3.86%4.86%5.86%
Year 1 PV (M)1,658.931,674.901,690.87
Year 2 PV (M)2,181.062,223.262,265.87
Year 3 PV (M)2,643.162,720.252,798.82
Year 4 PV (M)3,050.143,169.323,291.96
Year 5 PV (M)3,406.533,573.733,747.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,060.4356,713.6859,470.11
Equity Value (M)67,000.2470,075.1473,265.05
Shares Outstanding (M)20.5320.5320.53
Fair Value$3,263.49$3,413.26$3,568.64
Upside / Downside10.03%15.08%20.32%

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