Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Komatsu Ltd. (6301.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15,356.34 - $89,360.88$28,492.69
Multi-Stage$9,152.85 - $10,001.14$9,569.28
Blended Fair Value$19,030.99
Current Price$5,160.00
Upside268.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.11%11.65%181.17151.29123.4679.2058.60117.13101.6566.7159.5159.49
YoY Growth--19.75%22.54%55.88%35.15%-49.97%15.23%52.37%12.11%0.03%-1.14%
Dividend Yield--3.82%3.16%3.18%2.63%2.12%5.32%3.82%2.11%2.08%3.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)413,110.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)175,480.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)237,630.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)82,622.0051,638.7530,983.25
Cash Retained (M)237,630.00237,630.00237,630.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-82,622.00-51,638.75-30,983.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)155,008.00185,991.25206,646.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)919.39919.39919.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share168.60202.30224.77
LTM Dividend per Share190.87190.87190.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share168.60202.30224.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend359.47393.17415.63
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15,356.34$28,492.69$89,360.88
Upside / Downside197.60%452.18%1,631.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)413,110.00439,962.15468,559.69499,016.07531,452.11565,996.50582,976.40
Payout Ratio42.48%51.98%61.49%70.99%80.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)175,480.00228,702.15288,101.77354,257.08427,795.35509,396.85539,253.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)209,831.99211,820.92213,809.85
Year 2 PV (M)242,520.72247,140.06251,802.98
Year 3 PV (M)273,604.31281,458.50289,461.59
Year 4 PV (M)303,139.07314,796.94326,787.87
Year 5 PV (M)331,179.60347,175.70363,784.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,054,737.697,395,484.167,749,271.80
Equity Value (M)8,415,013.388,797,876.299,194,918.09
Shares Outstanding (M)919.39919.39919.39
Fair Value$9,152.85$9,569.28$10,001.14
Upside / Downside77.38%85.45%93.82%

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