Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jinan Shengquan Group Share Holding Co., Ltd. (605589.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.05 - $80.46$46.08
Multi-Stage$21.00 - $22.92$21.94
Blended Fair Value$34.01
Current Price$33.89
Upside0.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.78%27.21%0.430.190.190.240.130.080.170.230.160.06
YoY Growth--128.12%1.05%-20.00%86.14%50.00%-50.00%-28.16%50.00%166.67%50.00%
Dividend Yield--1.53%0.99%0.96%0.81%0.37%0.24%0.49%0.68%0.45%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,046.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)469.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)577.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)209.35130.8578.51
Cash Retained (M)577.15577.15577.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-209.35-130.85-78.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)367.80446.31498.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)823.36823.36823.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.540.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.540.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.111.18
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.05$46.08$80.46
Upside / Downside-11.34%35.96%137.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,046.771,114.811,187.271,264.441,346.631,434.161,477.19
Payout Ratio44.86%53.89%62.92%71.95%80.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)469.61600.78747.01909.711,090.401,290.751,366.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)545.64550.81555.98
Year 2 PV (M)616.18627.92639.77
Year 3 PV (M)681.52701.09721.02
Year 4 PV (M)741.92770.46799.80
Year 5 PV (M)797.64836.16876.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,908.1714,579.9415,277.42
Equity Value (M)17,291.0718,066.3718,870.15
Shares Outstanding (M)823.36823.36823.36
Fair Value$21.00$21.94$22.92
Upside / Downside-38.03%-35.25%-32.37%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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