Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Leedarson IoT Technology Inc. (605365.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.62 - $6.97$5.73
Multi-Stage$6.87 - $7.51$7.18
Blended Fair Value$6.46
Current Price$15.14
Upside-57.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS12.83%0.00%0.330.300.130.010.090.180.070.030.000.00
YoY Growth--8.95%129.02%1,885.28%-92.26%-52.29%147.44%111.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.15%1.64%0.73%0.04%0.35%0.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)266.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)218.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.2633.2919.97
Cash Retained (M)48.1748.1748.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.26-33.29-19.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.0914.8828.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)501.87501.87501.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Fair Value$4.62$5.73$6.97
Upside / Downside-69.46%-62.15%-53.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)266.30269.48272.69275.94279.23282.56291.04
Payout Ratio81.91%83.53%85.15%86.76%88.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)218.13225.09232.19239.42246.79254.31269.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)203.73205.76207.80
Year 2 PV (M)190.21194.03197.88
Year 3 PV (M)177.53182.89188.37
Year 4 PV (M)165.63172.34179.25
Year 5 PV (M)154.47162.34170.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,558.132,688.372,823.85
Equity Value (M)3,449.703,605.733,767.68
Shares Outstanding (M)501.87501.87501.87
Fair Value$6.87$7.18$7.51
Upside / Downside-54.60%-52.55%-50.41%

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