Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co., Ltd. (605286.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.54 - $75.68$44.68
Multi-Stage$21.66 - $23.60$22.61
Blended Fair Value$33.65
Current Price$42.15
Upside-20.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS38.75%0.00%0.530.270.190.160.040.101.230.130.030.00
YoY Growth--96.09%41.22%17.59%315.56%-61.99%-91.61%880.97%385.75%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.35%1.24%0.50%0.63%0.12%0.48%5.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)219.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)165.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.8527.4116.44
Cash Retained (M)53.7053.7053.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.85-27.41-16.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8526.3037.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)169.21169.21169.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.160.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.160.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.131.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.54$44.68$75.68
Upside / Downside-29.93%6.00%79.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)219.26233.51248.69264.85282.07300.40309.42
Payout Ratio75.51%78.41%81.30%84.20%87.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)165.56183.08202.19223.01245.69270.36286.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)166.08167.66169.23
Year 2 PV (M)166.38169.55172.75
Year 3 PV (M)166.47171.25176.12
Year 4 PV (M)166.36172.76179.34
Year 5 PV (M)166.07174.09182.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,834.382,971.283,113.42
Equity Value (M)3,665.763,826.603,993.29
Shares Outstanding (M)169.21169.21169.21
Fair Value$21.66$22.61$23.60
Upside / Downside-48.60%-46.35%-44.01%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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