Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sobute New Materials Co., Ltd (603916.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.99 - $2.90$2.43
Multi-Stage$3.73 - $4.10$3.91
Blended Fair Value$3.17
Current Price$10.42
Upside-69.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.40%-2.70%0.270.390.480.410.310.280.220.110.250.22
YoY Growth---30.63%-17.75%16.13%32.32%11.82%25.84%102.90%-57.24%15.89%-38.71%
Dividend Yield--3.58%4.54%2.92%1.92%1.36%1.68%1.79%0.84%2.34%2.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.2813.928.35
Cash Retained (M)41.8241.8241.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.28-13.92-8.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.5427.9033.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)411.40411.40411.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate-2.40%-1.40%-0.40%
Fair Value$1.99$2.43$2.90
Upside / Downside-80.88%-76.68%-72.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.39109.84108.31106.79105.30103.83106.95
Payout Ratio62.46%67.96%73.47%78.98%84.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.5774.6579.5884.3588.9793.4598.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate-2.40%-1.40%-0.40%
Year 1 PV (M)68.2868.9869.68
Year 2 PV (M)66.5867.9569.33
Year 3 PV (M)64.5566.5568.60
Year 4 PV (M)62.2864.8767.54
Year 5 PV (M)59.8362.9666.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,213.861,277.331,343.43
Equity Value (M)1,535.391,608.651,684.81
Shares Outstanding (M)411.40411.40411.40
Fair Value$3.73$3.91$4.10
Upside / Downside-64.18%-62.47%-60.70%

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