Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Fujian Haixia Environmental Protection Group Co.,Ltd. (603817.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.50 - $26.68$14.77
Multi-Stage$6.46 - $7.06$6.75
Blended Fair Value$10.76
Current Price$6.22
Upside73.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.12%-1.01%0.230.050.050.050.050.040.020.060.050.03
YoY Growth--322.33%0.71%13.80%0.05%11.52%126.09%-67.14%11.35%92.11%-89.47%
Dividend Yield--4.18%0.99%0.92%0.73%0.76%0.75%0.23%0.58%0.23%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)213.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)142.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.6726.6716.00
Cash Retained (M)142.97142.97142.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.67-26.67-16.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)100.30116.30126.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)550.38550.38550.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate8.95%8.95%8.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.50$14.77$26.68
Upside / Downside52.68%137.53%328.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)213.35227.22241.99257.72274.47292.31301.08
Payout Ratio32.99%44.39%55.79%67.19%78.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.38100.86135.01173.17215.73263.08278.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.95%8.95%8.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)91.7192.5893.45
Year 2 PV (M)111.62113.75115.90
Year 3 PV (M)130.19133.92137.73
Year 4 PV (M)147.46153.13158.97
Year 5 PV (M)163.52171.42179.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,911.703,052.343,198.35
Equity Value (M)3,556.203,717.143,884.02
Shares Outstanding (M)550.38550.38550.38
Fair Value$6.46$6.75$7.06
Upside / Downside3.88%8.58%13.46%

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