Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd (603799.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$95.43 - $445.08$168.24
Multi-Stage$59.36 - $64.83$62.05
Blended Fair Value$115.14
Current Price$65.90
Upside74.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.14%34.90%2.181.270.740.440.210.290.330.110.150.16
YoY Growth--71.73%71.45%68.51%106.43%-25.51%-13.02%208.66%-29.32%-5.81%46.30%
Dividend Yield--6.39%4.25%1.34%0.58%0.40%1.26%1.39%0.21%0.69%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,350.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,568.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,781.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,070.13668.83401.30
Cash Retained (M)2,781.932,781.932,781.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,070.13-668.83-401.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,711.792,113.092,380.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,768.291,768.291,768.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.191.35
LTM Dividend per Share1.451.451.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.191.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.422.652.80
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$95.43$168.24$445.08
Upside / Downside44.82%155.30%575.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,350.675,698.466,068.866,463.336,883.457,330.887,550.80
Payout Ratio48.01%56.41%64.80%73.20%81.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,568.743,214.293,932.914,731.365,617.006,597.796,984.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,943.452,971.352,999.25
Year 2 PV (M)3,298.053,360.873,424.28
Year 3 PV (M)3,633.303,737.603,843.88
Year 4 PV (M)3,949.954,101.864,258.10
Year 5 PV (M)4,248.714,453.934,667.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)86,895.3791,092.4595,450.16
Equity Value (M)104,968.83109,718.05114,642.66
Shares Outstanding (M)1,768.291,768.291,768.29
Fair Value$59.36$62.05$64.83
Upside / Downside-9.92%-5.85%-1.62%

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