Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Proya Cosmetics Co.,Ltd. (603605.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$78.22 - $171.40$112.33
Multi-Stage$57.36 - $62.61$59.94
Blended Fair Value$86.14
Current Price$80.79
Upside6.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.77%38.44%0.941.010.440.370.300.220.160.050.100.92
YoY Growth---6.72%129.92%19.38%21.94%37.20%39.60%200.39%-49.28%-88.83%2,439.68%
Dividend Yield--1.14%1.05%0.34%0.38%0.37%0.37%0.44%0.33%0.92%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,578.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)476.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,101.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)315.70197.31118.39
Cash Retained (M)1,101.811,101.811,101.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-315.70-197.31-118.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)786.11904.50983.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)393.70393.70393.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.002.302.50
LTM Dividend per Share1.211.211.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.002.302.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.213.513.71
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$78.22$112.33$171.40
Upside / Downside-3.18%39.04%112.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,578.491,681.091,790.361,906.732,030.672,162.662,227.54
Payout Ratio30.20%42.16%54.12%66.08%78.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)476.68708.72968.921,259.961,584.731,946.402,060.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)639.26645.31651.37
Year 2 PV (M)788.29803.30818.46
Year 3 PV (M)924.59951.13978.17
Year 4 PV (M)1,048.931,089.271,130.76
Year 5 PV (M)1,162.041,218.161,276.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,021.3818,891.8219,795.57
Equity Value (M)22,584.4723,598.9924,650.77
Shares Outstanding (M)393.70393.70393.70
Fair Value$57.36$59.94$62.61
Upside / Downside-29.00%-25.81%-22.50%

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