Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd (603456.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.34 - $32.67$21.81
Multi-Stage$11.50 - $12.54$12.01
Blended Fair Value$16.91
Current Price$19.45
Upside-13.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.94%29.38%0.530.400.230.190.180.180.100.050.070.05
YoY Growth--31.41%71.95%25.44%3.50%-0.32%79.95%102.12%-33.33%59.96%15.86%
Dividend Yield--3.83%2.23%0.71%0.39%0.47%0.88%1.07%0.52%0.75%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)722.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)283.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)439.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)144.5790.3654.22
Cash Retained (M)439.78439.78439.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-144.57-90.36-54.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)295.21349.42385.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)888.78888.78888.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.34$21.81$32.67
Upside / Downside-21.14%12.12%67.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)722.87769.86819.90873.19929.95990.401,020.11
Payout Ratio39.16%49.33%59.50%69.66%79.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)283.09379.77487.82608.31742.40891.36943.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)342.08345.32348.56
Year 2 PV (M)395.79403.33410.94
Year 3 PV (M)444.57457.33470.34
Year 4 PV (M)488.72507.52526.85
Year 5 PV (M)528.55554.08580.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,021.098,408.518,810.76
Equity Value (M)10,220.8010,676.0911,148.03
Shares Outstanding (M)888.78888.78888.78
Fair Value$11.50$12.01$12.54
Upside / Downside-40.87%-38.24%-35.51%

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