Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Square Technology Group Co.,Ltd (603339.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.58 - $20.32$13.60
Multi-Stage$7.26 - $7.91$7.58
Blended Fair Value$10.59
Current Price$14.00
Upside-24.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.49%23.92%0.260.230.160.130.140.160.120.120.000.11
YoY Growth--14.84%41.53%27.29%-11.06%-10.53%27.14%0.27%0.00%-100.00%251.94%
Dividend Yield--2.13%1.98%1.07%1.15%1.47%1.99%1.00%0.85%0.00%1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)71.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)84.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.2219.5111.71
Cash Retained (M)84.5284.5284.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.22-19.51-11.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.3065.0172.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)305.52305.52305.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.58$13.60$20.32
Upside / Downside-31.55%-2.83%45.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.09166.23177.04188.55200.80213.85220.27
Payout Ratio45.85%54.68%63.51%72.34%81.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)71.5790.90112.44136.39162.99192.47203.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.8682.6383.41
Year 2 PV (M)91.1992.9294.68
Year 3 PV (M)99.62102.48105.39
Year 4 PV (M)107.20111.33115.57
Year 5 PV (M)114.00119.51125.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,724.101,807.381,893.84
Equity Value (M)2,217.972,316.242,418.11
Shares Outstanding (M)305.52305.52305.52
Fair Value$7.26$7.58$7.91
Upside / Downside-48.15%-45.85%-43.47%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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