Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Well Lead Medical Co., Ltd. (603309.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.68 - $165.84$127.11
Multi-Stage$21.09 - $23.05$22.05
Blended Fair Value$74.58
Current Price$13.65
Upside446.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.81%27.19%0.530.360.160.200.170.110.100.100.000.10
YoY Growth--45.65%134.85%-22.32%15.74%50.22%12.28%0.00%0.00%-100.00%118.35%
Dividend Yield--4.43%3.24%0.90%1.37%1.37%0.84%0.88%0.75%0.00%0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)244.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)158.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.8630.5418.32
Cash Retained (M)86.0286.0286.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.86-30.54-18.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.1655.4867.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)292.98292.98292.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.190.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.190.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.77
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$43.68$127.11$165.84
Upside / Downside219.98%831.23%1,114.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)244.31260.19277.10295.11314.30334.72344.77
Payout Ratio64.79%69.83%74.87%79.92%84.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)158.29181.70207.48235.84267.02301.25318.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)168.04169.63171.23
Year 2 PV (M)177.46180.84184.26
Year 3 PV (M)186.56191.92197.38
Year 4 PV (M)195.35202.86210.59
Year 5 PV (M)203.83213.68223.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,248.365,501.865,765.06
Equity Value (M)6,179.616,460.806,752.41
Shares Outstanding (M)292.98292.98292.98
Fair Value$21.09$22.05$23.05
Upside / Downside54.52%61.55%68.84%

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