Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hangcha Group Co., Ltd (603298.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.04 - $165.34$77.80
Multi-Stage$30.25 - $33.05$31.62
Blended Fair Value$54.71
Current Price$28.73
Upside90.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.05%13.45%0.380.310.290.270.170.140.150.140.120.11
YoY Growth--19.66%9.32%5.39%62.45%16.04%-0.65%2.89%16.00%8.08%6.01%
Dividend Yield--1.81%1.55%2.05%2.86%1.01%2.44%1.86%1.89%0.89%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,201.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)668.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,532.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)440.36275.22165.13
Cash Retained (M)1,532.941,532.941,532.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-440.36-275.22-165.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,092.581,257.721,367.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,313.231,313.231,313.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.830.961.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.830.961.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.341.471.55
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$47.04$77.80$165.34
Upside / Downside63.73%170.78%475.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,201.792,344.912,497.332,659.652,832.533,016.653,107.15
Payout Ratio30.38%42.30%54.23%66.15%78.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)668.85991.941,354.211,759.392,211.512,714.982,874.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)905.58914.16922.75
Year 2 PV (M)1,128.671,150.171,171.87
Year 3 PV (M)1,338.691,377.121,416.28
Year 4 PV (M)1,536.201,595.281,656.05
Year 5 PV (M)1,721.731,804.891,891.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,088.8934,687.0936,346.46
Equity Value (M)39,719.7641,528.7243,404.64
Shares Outstanding (M)1,313.231,313.231,313.23
Fair Value$30.25$31.62$33.05
Upside / Downside5.28%10.07%15.04%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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