Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.,Ltd (603136.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.18 - $71.41$33.63
Multi-Stage$33.90 - $37.35$35.59
Blended Fair Value$34.61
Current Price$11.83
Upside192.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.79%2.60%0.380.010.010.160.310.240.140.070.200.20
YoY Growth--4,652.74%-28.01%-92.99%-49.49%31.72%68.34%89.39%-61.94%-0.18%-33.14%
Dividend Yield--3.25%0.06%0.05%1.12%2.08%2.30%1.06%0.59%2.11%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)102.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)65.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.5012.817.69
Cash Retained (M)36.6636.6636.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.50-12.81-7.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.1623.8528.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)272.43272.43272.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate2.59%2.59%2.59%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Fair Value$15.18$33.63$71.41
Upside / Downside28.33%184.31%503.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)102.49104.13105.79107.48109.20110.94114.27
Payout Ratio64.23%69.39%74.54%79.69%84.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)65.8372.2578.8685.6592.6599.85105.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.59%2.59%2.59%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Year 1 PV (M)69.7370.4271.12
Year 2 PV (M)73.4574.9276.40
Year 3 PV (M)77.0179.3381.69
Year 4 PV (M)80.3983.6486.98
Year 5 PV (M)83.6287.8692.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,851.949,300.749,767.57
Equity Value (M)9,236.149,696.9110,176.03
Shares Outstanding (M)272.43272.43272.43
Fair Value$33.90$35.59$37.35
Upside / Downside186.59%200.89%215.75%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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