Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

MEGA P&C Advanced Materials (Shanghai) Company Limited (603062.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$190.52 - $442.59$414.77
Multi-Stage$67.11 - $73.37$70.18
Blended Fair Value$242.48
Current Price$55.27
Upside338.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS81.23%0.00%1.901.251.411.280.130.100.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--52.17%-11.70%10.41%857.82%37.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.77%2.86%2.43%2.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)236.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)175.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.2529.5317.72
Cash Retained (M)60.7860.7860.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.25-29.53-17.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.5331.2543.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)106.15106.15106.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.290.41
LTM Dividend per Share1.651.651.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.290.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.781.952.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$190.52$414.77$442.59
Upside / Downside244.71%650.45%700.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)236.24251.60267.95285.37303.92323.67333.38
Payout Ratio74.27%77.42%80.56%83.71%86.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)175.46194.78215.87238.88263.96291.30308.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)181.20182.91184.63
Year 2 PV (M)186.81190.37193.96
Year 3 PV (M)192.31197.83203.46
Year 4 PV (M)197.69205.29213.11
Year 5 PV (M)202.95212.76222.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,163.466,461.166,770.25
Equity Value (M)7,124.437,450.337,788.35
Shares Outstanding (M)106.15106.15106.15
Fair Value$67.11$70.18$73.37
Upside / Downside21.43%26.99%32.75%

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